Europe is bracing for a surge in energy prices from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that would put more pressure on the bloc’s struggling economy and expose its near-total reliance on foreign fossil fuels, writes POLITICO.

“Oil and gas shipments largely stopped flowing out of the Persian Gulf over the weekend following the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, amid reports Iranian forces had warned ships against passing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

That won’t have an immediate impact on Europe as most of the oil and gas that passes through the Strait of Hormuz - which accounts for around 20 percent of the global oil trade - goes to Asia. Still, choking supply will still push up global prices, analysts said, and that would have a direct effect on Europe. The Brent crude benchmark lurched up more than 9 percent in early trading Monday morning to nearly $80 a barrel, its highest level since June last year.

“Both oil and LNG are ... global markets: any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger immediate price spikes that would hit Europe regardless of its limited physical imports”, said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. The risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz was discussed at meetings of EU diplomats in Brussels Sunday.

Tagliapietra said that a short conflict of a few days would “inject a geopolitical risk premium into oil and gas markets”, but “a prolonged disruption over the course of several weeks, by contrast, would begin to erode inventories, constrain logistics, and dangerously tighten global oil and gas balances - with much heavier effects on energy prices”. A longer-term risk from the conflict is that if the large volumes of oil and gas that flow through the Strait of Hormuz are severely disrupted, that will force a rearranging of trading relationships, as happened in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

“The crisis will deepen depending on the length of this war. If the situation is solved in one or two weeks or even a month, the repercussions will be much less”, said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. But if, like the war in Ukraine, it goes on for years, the repercussions for Europe could be significant.

“The fact is still that Europe imports most of its energy from other countries. And I think events like this just highlight how problematic, how risky that is as a strategy and how unsustainable”, said Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University. “The structural solution has to be renewable energy produced in Europe, electrification, and improving the efficiency of the economy. The less we use, the less exposed we are”.

OPEC+, the cartel of oil producing and exporting countries, said Sunday it would increase oil output by 206,000 barrels a day in April, potentially reducing the risk of a price spike - though Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said this would not address the problem of getting the oil out of the Gulf.

“There are too many unknowns at the moment”, Latvian Energy Minister Kaspars Melnis told POLITICO. He downplayed the prospect of soaring prices, citing European efforts to diversify since the invasion of Ukraine. “The situation is different from 2022, when there was a price peak,” Melnis said. “The first and most important differentiating element [is that] EU countries have reserves, which allow them to build a long-term strategy”. EU member countries have emergency oil reserves that will last 90 days. However, some neighboring European countries, particularly in the Balkans and Eastern Europe, have struggled to meet that target, according to two people familiar with the matter.

“Panic moment” --- The EU currently imports the majority of its oil from the U.S., Norway, Kazakhstan and Libya, according to official EU data, none of which is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which do export via that route, accounted for only around 7 percent and 5 percent of Europe’s oil imports respectively in the third quarter of 2025.

The bloc similarly gets 60 percent of its liquefied natural gas from the U.S., followed by Algeria and Russia. Gulf-based producer Qatar, the world’s second biggest LNG exporter, only supplied around 6 percent of Europe"s LNG in the third quarter of 2025.

But that is likely to change. The EU is already in the process of weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and is increasingly concerned that its growing dependence on the United States for LNG is risky as EU-U.S. relations hit an all-time low earlier this year.

“For Europe, I think it creates a panic moment”, said Jaller-Makarewicz. “Four years ago [following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine] we had these issues”. But this time, she said, “we are not just now concerned about Russia, but about Qatar, the U.S. … so I think now since we have increased dependencies on other sources, we have also increased our vulnerability”.

Qatar is the second biggest producer of LNG in the world. But if Qatari cargoes are constrained, Russia could be the big beneficiary, Jaller-Makarewicz added. “We could also see Russian energy flowing to other countries. There could be an opportunity for Russia if this Qatar LNG is stopped”, she said.

Poland already depends on Qatar for 20% of its LNG supply, but downplayed the risks. “In the event of a disruption to supplies from Qatar, the missing volume will be sourced on the spot market. Therefore, the security of LNG supplies to Poland is not at risk”, said Grzegorz Łaguna, deputy director in communications department of the Polish Ministry of Energy”, - reads the article.